منابع مشابه
Model error in weather forecasting
Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examples and in operational numerical weath...
متن کاملModel error in weather and climate forecasting
We review various interpretations of the phrase “model error”, choosing to focus here on how to quantify and minimise the cumulative effect of model “imperfections” that either have not been eliminated because of incomplete observations/understanding or cannot be eliminated because they are intrinsic to the model’s structure. We will not provide a recipe for eliminating these imperfections, but...
متن کاملLoss aversion is an affective forecasting error.
Loss aversion occurs because people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. In two studies, people predicted that losses in a gambling task would have greater hedonic impact than would gains of equal magnitude, but when people actually gambled, losses did not have as much of an emotional impact as they predicted. People overestimated the hedonic impact of los...
متن کاملOn Calibration Error of Randomized Forecasting Algorithms
Recently, it was shown that calibration with an error less than δ > 0 is almost surely guaranteed with a randomized forecasting algorithm, where forecasts are chosen using randomized rounding up to δ of deterministic forecasts. We show that this error can not be improved for a large majority of sequences generated by a probabilistic algorithm: we prove that combining outcomes of coin-tossing an...
متن کاملAnalysis of Wind Speed Forecasting Error Effects on Automatic Generation Control Performance
The main goal of this paper is to study statistical indices and evaluate AGC indices in power system which has large penetration of the WTGs. Increasing penetration of wind turbine generations, needs to study more about impacts of it on power system frequency control. Frequency control is changed with unbalancing real-time system generation and load . Also wind turbine generations have more flu...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature
سال: 1976
ISSN: 0028-0836,1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/262441b0